Will there be movement on overdue Farm Bill during the lame duck session?

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack says talking about thestuck-in-the-mud farm bill negotiationsfeels like Groundhog Day.

Congress is required to approve a new federal farm bill every five years. The 2018 farm bill expired on Sept. 30, 2023. But the Republican-led House couldnt get its version of the bill across the finish lineamid GOP in-fighting over a host of issues.

With no other options and time running out, Congress was forced to extend the 2018 law to Sept. 30, 2024.

In the not-so-distant past, farm bill renewal to a significant degree revolved around negotiations between rural and urban lawmakers on theSupplemental Nutrition Assistance Programas well as individual agriculture committee members advocating for crop commodity support based on where they lived. For example, in the South it would be cotton. In the West, wheat. The Midwest, primarily corn and soybeans. On the West Coast, vegetables, fruits and specialty crops.

Ten of the last 13 farm bills dating back to 1965 were essentially completed on time by Dec. 31 in the year of expiration. And mostly bipartisan.

Discussions could be heated, but debate hadnt devolved into the hand-to-hand Republican-Democrat trench warfare that has marked the last two years.Thats also the conclusion from the Congressional Research Service, which saysOver time, farm bills have tended to become more complicated and politically sensitive. As a result, the timeline for reauthorization has become less certain.

Senate Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabanow hasnt been shy aboutvoicing her displeasure, saying in June that Ive actually been involved in six farm bills and led on three of them, and this has been the most frustrating time. Because its so much more partisan than usual and particularly around food assistance.

Bipartisanship is out the window. Everything is up for passionate debate driven by party ideology that leaves little room for common ground.

So it was inevitable that when Sept. 30 rolled around this year lawmakers still hadnt come to agreement.

To no ones surprise, there remains huge divides over the $1.5 trillion package. Perhaps the biggest sticking point is GOP desire toplace new limitson SNAP to offset additional spending on crop subsidies.

Lawmakers punted potential votes on the farm bill into the lame duck session that began this week. Democrats hoped wins in the November elections would force Republicans to capitulate on right-wing partisan issues.

But the GOPs sweeping victories completely upended farm bill prognostication. Next year, Republicans will control all the levers of government.

Before the elections,a majority of Republicans calledto place theFarm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024on the House floor during the lame duck session:

But the election shuffled the deck on farm bill policy considerations.

Prior to the election, one of the biggest reasons for farm bill gridlock was heated debate regarding the2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The law allocated $19.5 billion to USDA to dole out for programs that address climate-smart agriculture. Republicans wanted to use dollars earmarked for climate programs to increase payouts ofTitle I programsthat give revenue support primarily for row commodity crops like soybeans, wheat and corn. Democrats strenuously disagreed.

But withclimate change denier Donald Trump moving into the White House in January, hard-right GOP lawmakers will attempt to kill any and all appropriations meant to fight climate change.

The Heritage Foundations Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative PromiseProject 2025 playbook envisions major policy changes to the farm bill including:

• Repeal of the Agricultural Risk and Price Loss Coverage Programs.
• Repeal the federal sugar program.
• Move oversight of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, theSpecial Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, and a host of other food service programs from USDA to the Department of Health and Human Services. Separation would mean future farm bills would focus almost exclusively on farming issues and practices. Whether on balance that is beneficial to producers is debatable.
• Call for elimination of the Conservation Reserve Program.

My suspicion is that there will not be a farm bill deal in the lame duck. The most likely scenario is yet another one-year extension with short-term dollars forcash-strapped farmers hit by recent economic losses.

Longer term itsKaty bar the doorfor whoever replaces retiring Senate Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabanow and likely House Agriculture Minority Chair David Scott. Democrats have no political leverage.

There are key political questions: How far to the right will likely 2025 Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson be willing to push the GOP agricultural agenda? Will incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota be forced by his caucus tochange filibuster and cloture rules, making it easier to get bills on the floor for votes?As recently as two months ago Thune voiced his opposition to the idea under Democratic rule, but with the GOP takeover will Thune feel the same way?

Theres also a question of where Thune a current member of the Senate Agriculture Committee will eventually land when it comes to protecting farmers from corporate agricultural abuses.

Its a fraught time for Democrats and farmers.